A Video Game Could Cost the US $1 Billion in Sick Days. An Economist Says Relax

NEW YORK, Oct. 23, 2026 — Grand Theft Auto VI comes out Thursday, Nov. 19, 13 years after the last main game in the series. A number has been following it around the internet: 1.5 million Americans calling in sick to play, costing the U.S. economy $1 billion.

It's a great headline. It's also not really a study, and at least one economist thinks the whole idea of "lost productivity" from big events misses the point.

## Where the Number Came From

The estimate is usually credited to José García Montalvo, an economist at Pompeu Fabra University in Barcelona. MercoPress reported that it does not come from a published study, that it has circulated among gaming and tech outlets since last year, and that no full methodology has been released. GamesRadar+ called it "notably not an official forecast." Montalvo didn't respond to Fortune's request for comment.

As reported, the calculation starts from two inputs: about 1.5 million absences and an average U.S. worker's annual output of roughly $70,000. Those figures alone don't spell out how you get to exactly $1 billion for one day, which is part of why economists treat it as a ballpark talking point rather than a forecast.

## What the Real Data Shows

Some people will take the day off. BambooHR, an HR software company, told Money that time-off requests for Nov. 19 are running 9% to 17% above a typical third Thursday in November, Fortune reported. A spokesperson said that rise could also reflect workers using their time off more freely.

Even the publisher expects it. In April, Strauss Zelnick, CEO of GTA publisher Take-Two Interactive, predicted that "a lot of people will be calling in sick on November 19." GamesRadar noted that a few companies have announced they'll simply close on launch day.

## The Substitution Effect

Victor Matheson, an economist at the College of the Holy Cross who studies sports and major events, told Fortune the bigger issue is that most of these days aren't lost at all. They're moved.

"Even if we did have a billion dollars of people call out sick, that's a short-term loss that is made up for in the long term, when that PTO day isn't available for you next February, next March, next June, next July," he said.

He also put the number in context. $1 billion is about one-thirty-thousandth of annual U.S. GDP, roughly 1% of a single day's output.

## The Happiness Argument

Matheson went further. GDP measures what a country produces, he said, not how well its people are doing. He pointed to Bhutan, which tracks progress with a happiness index.

"If that's what makes you happy, and Grand Theft Auto's new release is what gets you there, then that's clearly an improvement in the economy, even if we're producing less stuff," he said. "Ultimately we want to be producing the maximum amount of happiness, not necessarily the maximum number of widgets."

## We've Heard This Before

Big lost-productivity numbers show up every year. In 2022, outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas said the Super Bowl could cost employers more than $6.5 billion the following Monday, Fortune noted, and March Madness gets the same treatment. Matheson argued a one-day game launch is less disruptive than a three-week tournament.

So if your coworker's desk is empty on Nov. 19, the economy will most likely be fine. They'll just be in the office some Friday in February.

Sources: Fortune · GamesRadar+ · MercoPress